by Stoker
No, not that slightly sleazy firm of solicitors in Penge that your neighbour is using in his boundary dispute. Not lawyers in Penge, of course; but maybe three slightly dubious American politicians?
Let us begin with Mr Newsom. He, like Mr Carney, the rapidly rising star next door in Canada, is a Governor, but not (ex) of the Bank of England, but of California, a much richer and perhaps happier place. He is the perfect film star governor of the film star state; good looking, fit, rich, hip, leftie, wokeish. He is from an old San Francisco family – fourth generation, that’s old money in SF, very well connected in the way that modern Democrats seem to be – father a lawyer and judge, relative by marriage of Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the House of Representatives and leader of the House Democrats. He is close to the Getty family, a key client of his father, who financially started him, highly successfully, in business (a winery, what else). He seems to have always been politically ambitious and rose rapidly. He is a hard worker, even his opponents admit, and he became Mayor of San Francisco in 2004, then lieutenant governor of California in 2011, and finally swept by a landslide to the California Governorship in 2019.
He is a survivor, some would say a slider, having moved from being a right-wing Democrat to centrist positions and then to at least making noises that sounded like left-wingism. His first wife left him and worked for the Trump 2016 presidential campaign, even getting engaged to Donald Trump Jr at one stage, but he has slid past that embarrassment. Governor Newsom survived a recall campaign in 2021, principally over his perhaps over-zealous covid19 measures, and was re-elected by a smaller landslide in 2023. He declined to step into Joe Biden’s shoes when Joe left the Presidential race last year; instead, he strongly supported fellow Californian Kamala Harris. (Remember her? Don’t worry, hardly anybody does.)
Why is he intruding into an article about Dear Old Donald and Vile Young Vance? Because he is clever, flexible, and ambitious, and is likely to be a top-runner for the Democrat presidential nomination in 2028. The way things are going, he might even end up in the White House, though much water must flow down the Potomac before that is a possibility. Gavin has been tacking rightwards recently, being tough on state spending (the Californian economy is indeed a shambles), tough on crime, and has just announced that he is against (former male) trans athletes competing against women. “Not fair” he said, taking the populist position. It may not sound much, but when politicians start reflecting populist positions you know they are in campaigning mode. We are watching you now, Governor Newsom.
And so to the bad boys. International politics only, maybe domestic next time. There are lot of theories about what Mr Trump and his sidekick are up to in eastern Europe. Diplomacy has sure never before sounded like this. Let’s dismiss the mad theory, that Trump is being paid by Mr Putin. There is also an unlikely theory, though perhaps it isn’t, that Donald is sickened at the terrible butchery of this old-fashioned war and wants to stop it. Leaders of nations at war, or proximate thereto, do get appalled by the blood and the slaughter of young people on the battlefield. It was a big factor in the British appeasement of Hitler in the 1930’s. Baldwin and Chamberlain, successive prime ministers, hated the thought of a repeat of World War One, and it probably distorted Chamberlain’s judgment in his handling of the events of 1938 and 1939. Do not rule out that The Donald may genuinely want to end this stalemate war (and get the credit of course).
But there is another factor in Trump that is often overlooked. He is not a politician. He does not have a politician’s instincts. He does not behave like a politician. He makes jokes without thinking, he speaks, tweets, and insults without research or reflection. If necessary, he will just deny, unsay, or roll back obvious mistruths or misstatements. He is your archetypal bar-room yob – if a teetotaller can be so described.
What he is, is a businessman, through and through. The Art of the Deal is his credo, as well as the title of his best-seller. The Trump approach to business and in particular the property business, which is probably the most fraught and dangerous business there is, winning is what matters. The alternative is losing, and that can mean losing everything, so the stakes are high and tactics deadly. So to in politics. What is the deal?
Ukraine is a deal, a property deal at that, two deals in fact. One is the Putin/Zelensky deal, the Russia/Ukraine non-deal. War is very destructive of property capital. It may turn out to be worth it to the winner, though the damage in this particular conflict is so appalling, both in terms of life and infrastructure, that it is impossible now to see how there could be a victor of any type. But if you are fighting for your country, then merely to drive the aggressor out is victory; hence Mr Zelensky will fight to the last missile. It is hard to know what Putin thinks would be victory; yes, there is a concept of a greater Russia which Putin and perhaps some of his acolytes – especially those raised in the pre 1990 USSR - hold dear. Perhaps to Putin to not win is to lose; to lose his job maybe, his wealth, his life.
But there is another deal. Mr Trump has drawn our attention to this. If you want Mr Trump to be your ally you must show him the deal. He does not send his great battalions to fight alongside yours for nothing. To start with you must be polite, you should dress respectfully, you should say thank you, praise your host. This we all know now. But also there must be a real deal. In the Ukraine there is great wealth under the ground. To Trump and Vance cheap resources would be very useful indeed in helping rebuild the American economy – which has been wrecked, like almost every western democratic economy, by government and consumer over-spending, under-investing, and mad generosity and sheer idleness (of thinking as well as the physical variant). Do these Ukrainian resources matter to Mr Putin? Not maybe so much, though more wealth is always handy. Russia has much of the same resources of her own; the Russian problem is digging them up and making them into things. Trump has a clever point; if American business has a very valuable investment in Ukraine, it will have a real interest in defending it in the future. But for that interest to arise, there must first be peace, order, repair, investment. That is indeed strategic thinking.
And here’s a bit more. To the Trump administration the real threat to a free West is not Russia, but China. China’s current politicians are long-term strategic thinkers par excellence. A vast country with few natural resources is making itself the new workshop of the world. It has made many poor countries in Africa and the Far East into utterly dependent states, feeding the forges of Sino-captalism. In Europe those policies are advancing with increasing rapidity; especially in the UK. China dominates our consumer economy already; it has done all this with brains and not with boots or bullets. The West is being undermined, copied, plagiarised, made dependent, and Donald believes that is where the long-term threat comes from; and part of the answer is to rapidly rebuild economic independence. Mr Vance may be exceptionally straight-spoken, downright rude on occasions, but he is bright, original, and knows that those clouds forming in the east are the great problem of his generation. Will his approach convince the US’s western allies, or push them away? In 2028 that may be what Vance and Newsom fight the election on; tomorrow’s battle, tomorrow’s men.
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